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Filed under: News, The Economy
What is the definition of an economic recovery? This is the hot finance topic of the week. As the White House unrolls a PR plan to try and demonstrate that the recession is over thanks to the administration’s efforts, the question of how to exactly define economic recovery is causing confusion. Let’s look at the facts and try to determine an economic recovery definition.
President Obama has claimed that 650,000 jobs have been created or saved through his stimulus plan. The Dow increased by 200 in response to the good news. Plus, the economy grew last quarter for the first time in a year at a rate of 3.5%. Modest, but good. There is also the increase in home sales reported in September. And even Ford posted a profit of nearly $1 billion this year, which came as a surprise to the business community. But do these positive reports illustrate that our economy is set for permanent stability?
Chart shows seasonally adjusted annual rate of pending U.S. home sales
AP
Chart shows seasonally adjusted annual rate of pending U.S. home sales
AP
In this Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2009 photo a sign for a home under contract is seen in Philadelphia. The volume of signed contracts to buy previously occupied homes rose for the eighth straight month in September as buyers scrambled to take advantage of a tax credit for first-time owners that expires at the end of this month.(AP Photo/Matt Rourke)
AP
In this Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2009 photo a sign for a home under contract is seen in Philadelphia. The volume of signed contracts to buy previously occupied homes rose for the eighth straight month in September as buyers scrambled to take advantage of a tax credit for first-time owners that expires at the end of this month.(AP Photo/Matt Rourke)
AP
Chart shows new home sales for the past 13 months, seasonally adjusted
AP
Shea Homes townhouses are seen at the Victoria Gardens development in Rancho Cucamonga, Calif., Tuesday, Oct. 27, 2009. The number of buyers snapping up new homes dipped unexpectedly last month as the effects of a temporary tax credit for first-time owners started to wear off. (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes)
AP
Chart shows new home sales for the past 13 months, seasonally adjusted
AP
In this photo made Oct. 26, 2009, a new development of townhouses is seen in Wakefield, Mass. Sales of new homes dropped unexpectedly last month as the effects of a soon-to-expire tax credit for first-time owners started to wane.(AP Photo/Lisa Poole)
AP
In this photo made Oct. 26, 2009, a new development of townhouses is seen in Wakefield, Mass. Sales of new homes dropped unexpectedly last month as the effects of a soon-to-expire tax credit for first-time owners started to wane.(AP Photo/Lisa Poole)
AP
New home models are shown in Homestead, Fla., Tuesday, Oct. 27, 2009. Sales of new homes are expected to post their sixth consecutive monthly gain as builders reap the benefits of a tax credit for first-time owners that expires at the end of next month. (AP Photo/Alan Diaz)
AP
Some say no. Increases in car and home sales have been spurred by federally-backed incentives like the $8,000 first time homebuyer tax credit and the cash for clunkers program. These increases don’t stand on their own as signs of consumer strength. So what can we use to define economic recovery?
Writers at the Wall Street Journal believe the jobless rate is a much more meaningful benchmark. But right now it is too soon to tell exactly where that rate is heading based on the statistics available now. So even the jobless rate cannot help us develop a reliable economic recovery definition until we have more information.
Let’s try looking to the president for his definition. The POTUS has declared: “The benchmark I use to measure the strength of our economy is not just whether our GDP is growing, but whether we are creating jobs, whether families are having an easier time paying their bills, whether our businesses are hiring and doing well.” (CBS News)
As unemployment remains high and it is still difficult for people to get loans, we are clearly far from a lasting economic recovery — by the definition of the president himself. But as we have faced the worst economic decline since the Great Depression, it is silly to expect our economy to fully recover after a few months of federal intervention. Obama’s stimulus plan may not have created a full economic recovery within months, but it has helped many families survive what could have been a much worse financial scenario. It has also supported state governments that provide social services like police and teachers to all.
This type of relief may not fit an expert’s economic recovery definition, but it has helped society overall in the short term. For that alone the president can be commended.
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